Abstract:Variational autoencoders (VAEs) compress high resolution CT volumes into compact latents while preserving clinically relevant structure. However, training CT-specific VAEs from scratch or heavily fine-tuning them incurs substantial computational and engineering cost, and often degrades under heterogeneous scanners, protocols, and diseases. This paper makes a progressive stride toward training-free medical VAEs by leveraging a critical observation: a single Foundation VAE, pretrained at scale on natural images and videos, can serve as a unified interface for CT Reconstruction, Augmentation, and Generation. With both encoder and decoder frozen, the Foundation VAE reconstructs CT volumes with preserved anatomy while suppressing acquisition noise; training segmentation models on these reconstructions improves surface accuracy by 3.9% NSD on average for pancreatic tumor and lung tumor. Within the same Foundation VAE latent space, a conditional latent diffusion model achieves 3.9% lower average FVD with 36.2% higher CT CLIP score, and improves multi-disease generation faithfulness across 18 types by 2.76% AUC. These results demonstrate Foundation VAEs as a practical interface for scalable CT representation reuse and faithful CT generation. Our code and demo are available at https://github.com/qic999/Foundation-VAE.
Abstract:The increasing adoption of data-driven decision-making in public health has established epidemic forecasting as a critical area of research. Recent advances in multivariate forecasting models better capture complex temporal dependencies than conventional univariate approaches, which model individual series independently. Despite this potential, the development of robust epidemic forecasting methods is constrained by the lack of high-quality benchmarks comprising diverse multivariate datasets across infectious diseases and geographical regions. To address this gap, we present EpiCastBench, a large-scale benchmarking framework featuring 40 curated (correlated) multivariate epidemic datasets. These publicly available datasets span a wide range of infectious diseases and exhibit diverse characteristics in terms of temporal granularity, series length, and sparsity. We analyze these datasets to identify their global features and structural patterns. To ensure reproducibility and fair comparison, we establish standardized evaluation settings, including a unified forecasting horizon, consistent preprocessing pipelines, diverse performance metrics, and statistical significance testing. By leveraging this framework, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 15 multivariate forecasting models spanning statistical baselines to state-of-the-art deep learning and foundation models. All datasets and code are publicly available on Kaggle (https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/aimltsf/epicastbench) and GitHub (https://github.com/aimltsf/EpiCastBench).
Abstract:Estimating individualized treatment effects from longitudinal observational data is central to data-driven medicine, yet existing methods face a fundamental limitation: reducing confounding bias often suppresses clinically informative heterogeneity, degrading patient-specific predictions. Here, we identify this tension as a bias-precision paradox in causal representation learning and introduce sampling-based maximum mean discrepancy (sMMD), a stochastic alignment strategy that replaces global adversarial balancing with subset-level matching. We instantiate this approach in a framework for counterfactual outcome prediction with attribution-grounded interpretability. Across two large-scale ICU cohorts (n = 27,783), our framework improves accuracy under distribution shift, reducing error by up to 11.5% and substantially increasing recall in high-risk tasks. Mechanistic analyses show that sMMD selectively preserves clinically decisive variables. In human-AI evaluation, our method outperforms clinicians-in-training and large language models, and improves clinician accuracy by 14.7% while reducing decision time, enabling interpretable, real-time clinical decision support.
Abstract:Accurate and timely diagnosis is essential for effective treatment, particularly in the context of rare diseases. However, current diagnostic workflows often lead to prolonged assessment times and low accuracy. To address these limitations, we introduce Hygieia, a multi-modal AI agent system designed to support precision disease diagnosis by integrating diverse data sources, including phenotypic features, genetic profiles, and clinical records. Hygieia features a router-based and knowledge-enhanced framework that mitigates hallucination and tailors diagnostic strategies to different disease categories. Notably, it prioritizes risk-related genomic factors for rare diseases and provides confidence scores to assist clinical decision-making. We conducted a comprehensive evaluation demonstrating that Hygieia achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple diagnostic benchmarks. In collaboration with clinical experts from Yale School of Medicine and Duke-NUS Medical School, we further validated its practical utility by showing (1) Hygieia's superior diagnostic performance compared to physicians with an improvement from 12%-60% and (2) its effectiveness in assisting clinicians with medical records for handling real-world cases. Our findings indicate that Hygieia not only enhances diagnostic accuracy and interpretability but also significantly reduces clinician workload, highlighting its potential as a valuable tool in clinical decision support systems.
Abstract:In energy system analysis, coupling models with mismatched spatial resolutions is a significant challenge. A common solution is assigning weights to high-resolution geographic units for aggregation, but traditional models are limited by using only a single geospatial attribute. This paper presents an innovative method employing a self-supervised Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network to address this issue. This method models high-resolution geographic units as graph nodes, integrating various geographical features to generate physically meaningful weights for each grid point. These weights enhance the conventional Voronoi-based allocation method, allowing it to go beyond simply geographic proximity by incorporating essential geographic information.In addition, the self-supervised learning paradigm overcomes the lack of accurate ground-truth data. Experimental results demonstrate that applying weights generated by this method to cluster-based Voronoi Diagrams significantly enhances scalability, accuracy, and physical plausibility, while increasing precision compared to traditional methods.
Abstract:Privacy-preserving model co-training in medical research is often hindered by server-dependent architectures incompatible with protected hospital data systems and by the predominant focus on relative effect measures (hazard ratios) which lack clinical interpretability for absolute survival risk assessment. We propose FedRD, a communication-efficient framework for federated risk difference estimation in distributed survival data. Unlike typical federated learning frameworks (e.g., FedAvg) that require persistent server connections and extensive iterative communication, FedRD is server-independent with minimal communication: one round of summary statistics exchange for the stratified model and three rounds for the unstratified model. Crucially, FedRD provides valid confidence intervals and hypothesis testing--capabilities absent in FedAvg-based frameworks. We provide theoretical guarantees by establishing the asymptotic properties of FedRD and prove that FedRD (unstratified) is asymptotically equivalent to pooled individual-level analysis. Simulation studies and real-world clinical applications across different countries demonstrate that FedRD outperforms local and federated baselines in both estimation accuracy and prediction performance, providing an architecturally feasible solution for absolute risk assessment in privacy-restricted, multi-site clinical studies.
Abstract:Despite continuous advances in medical technology, the global distribution of health care resources remains uneven. The development of large language models (LLMs) has transformed the landscape of medicine and holds promise for improving health care quality and expanding access to medical information globally. However, existing LLMs are primarily trained on high-resource languages, limiting their applicability in global medical scenarios. To address this gap, we constructed GlobMed, a large multilingual medical dataset, containing over 500,000 entries spanning 12 languages, including four low-resource languages. Building on this, we established GlobMed-Bench, which systematically assesses 56 state-of-the-art proprietary and open-weight LLMs across multiple multilingual medical tasks, revealing significant performance disparities across languages, particularly for low-resource languages. Additionally, we introduced GlobMed-LLMs, a suite of multilingual medical LLMs trained on GlobMed, with parameters ranging from 1.7B to 8B. GlobMed-LLMs achieved an average performance improvement of over 40% relative to baseline models, with a more than threefold increase in performance on low-resource languages. Together, these resources provide an important foundation for advancing the equitable development and application of LLMs globally, enabling broader language communities to benefit from technological advances.
Abstract:Clinical decision support tools built on electronic health records often experience performance drift due to temporal population shifts, particularly when changes in the clinical environment initially affect only a subset of patients, resulting in a transition to mixed populations. Such case-mix changes commonly arise following system-level operational updates or the emergence of new diseases, such as COVID-19. We propose TRACER (Transfer Learning-based Real-time Adaptation for Clinical Evolving Risk), a framework that identifies encounter-level transition membership and adapts predictive models using transfer learning without full retraining. In simulation studies, TRACER outperformed static models trained on historical or contemporary data. In a real-world application predicting hospital admission following emergency department visits across the COVID-19 transition, TRACER improved both discrimination and calibration. TRACER provides a scalable approach for maintaining robust predictive performance under evolving and heterogeneous clinical conditions.
Abstract:The rapid growth of medical knowledge and increasing complexity of clinical practice pose challenges. In this context, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated value; however, inherent limitations remain. Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) technologies show potential to enhance their clinical applicability. This study reviewed RAG applications in medicine. We found that research primarily relied on publicly available data, with limited application in private data. For retrieval, approaches commonly relied on English-centric embedding models, while LLMs were mostly generic, with limited use of medical-specific LLMs. For evaluation, automated metrics evaluated generation quality and task performance, whereas human evaluation focused on accuracy, completeness, relevance, and fluency, with insufficient attention to bias and safety. RAG applications were concentrated on question answering, report generation, text summarization, and information extraction. Overall, medical RAG remains at an early stage, requiring advances in clinical validation, cross-linguistic adaptation, and support for low-resource settings to enable trustworthy and responsible global use.
Abstract:As machine learning models become increasingly integrated into healthcare, structural inequities and social biases embedded in clinical data can be perpetuated or even amplified by data-driven models. In survival analysis, censoring and time dynamics can further add complexity to fair model development. Additionally, algorithmic fairness approaches often overlook disparities in cross-group rankings, e.g., high-risk Black patients may be ranked below lower-risk White patients who do not experience the event of mortality. Such misranking can reinforce biological essentialism and undermine equitable care. We propose a Fairness-Aware Survival Modeling (FASM), designed to mitigate algorithmic bias regarding both intra-group and cross-group risk rankings over time. Using breast cancer prognosis as a representative case and applying FASM to SEER breast cancer data, we show that FASM substantially improves fairness while preserving discrimination performance comparable to fairness-unaware survival models. Time-stratified evaluations show that FASM maintains stable fairness over a 10-year horizon, with the greatest improvements observed during the mid-term of follow-up. Our approach enables the development of survival models that prioritize both accuracy and equity in clinical decision-making, advancing fairness as a core principle in clinical care.